In class tenth we all read Julius Caesar. In the play, Mark Antony says that Julius Caesar will take vengeance. He will release the dogs of war when he comes back and there will be death and destruction to an extent that mothers will not cry when their children will die in front of their eyes. When I read this I thought William Shakespeare is nothing more than a serial exaggerator. But now that I understand the European migrant crises and the middle eastern imbroglio I realize it is not Shakespeare who was guilty, it was me.
In management it is said that if you want to eat an elephant, eat it bit by bit, piece by piece and eat the smallest piece first. If we try to understand the whole middle east situation at once we will end up frustrated, so let us eat the elephant bit by bit, piece by piece. (Vegetarian Hindu friends out there, this is just a saying so please do not start protesting!)
In the middle east, Saudi Arabia is the home to the worlds last religious rulers, it is an extremist Wahhabi state, Iran is a Shia state and hence a mortal enemy of KSA (kingdom of Saudi Arabia), Turkey is a secular country and an ally of the United States of America, Israel is a very small country and hence everyone has to serve in the army and finally comes Syria which is an ally of Russia. So the whole middle east is a time bomb.
Next we look at the formation of Islamic State. If I use the common Indian saying to tell you what the Islamic State is, I would just say sone par suhaga. So with the civil war going on in Syria, the sectarian war going on in Syria and the Proxy war going on in Syria, Islamic state is icing on the cake. So how and why was it formed? It all began on a warm summer evening in Afghanistan when U.S.S.R entered Afghanistan.
Why they entered Afghanistan is a whole other story so we will not be focusing on it. U.S.A and Pakistan saw that there are many Afghan protesters/mujahidin’s desperate for arms and ammunition. U.S.A and Pakistan sold as many weapons as they could completely unaware of the fact that they were making a monster. This is the same mistake America made in world war 1 but what can we do, the big daddy does not want to learn from its mistakes. So when the Afghan protesters or Mujahidin’s defeated the U.S.S.R they were left alone with the ruins of a country. U.S.A gave no further assistance to them and this caused a civil war. After this the gulf war happened and for Osama Bin Laden this was an invasion on Muslim territory. This action solidified his hate for Americans and he formed Al- Qaeda which means ‘the base.’ He attacked the U.S.A on September 11, 2001. The U.S.A destroyed Al- Qaeda after that incident but never expected a child to born out of Al- Qaeda and the Mujahidin’s Taliban called I.S.I.S.
Now finally we come to Syria. You must have heard about the Arab Spring. It was a movement for democracy in the entire Arab world which started from Tunisia in December 2010 and spread to all other Arab countries. In march 2011 it hit Syria too and people demanded president Bashar Al-Assad to resign. The reaction of the government was just like we can expect. They killed as many protestors as they could. But the problem is not the civil war. The problem is that Russia, Iran and Hezbollah support Syrian government and USA, Turkey and gulf states support the rebels. But this is only a part of the problem. The bigger problem is that Shia Muslims who are backed by Iran, Assad and Hezbollah are fighting Sunni Muslims who are backed by rebels, gulf states and I.S.I.S and within the Sunni muslim supporters I.S.I.S is against rebels who are supported by gulf states. But there is one more problem. Other than the sectarian war and civil war a proxy war is also being fought between gulf states, USA and Hezbollah, Russia and Iran. So if you didn’t understand whatever I wrote in this paragraph just understand that everyone is killing everyone and only no one is safe.
Other than this ISIS is proliferating every day and more and more countries are being a victim of terrorism. On the top of this the prices of oil are falling down and the middle east is therefore in turmoil.
People have no choice but to leave the country. From Syria people are entering Egypt (1m), Lebanon (1.2m), Iraq (0.249463m) and the worst Turkey(1.9m). Why is Turkey the worst? The reason is that Turkey connects middle east to Europe. The problem is the Schengen agreement. The Schengen agreement clearly states that internal borders between countries should be removed and the signatories cannot violate the agreement in any situation. So once a person enters Europe he or she can go to Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain Sweden and Swiss.
People are not only entering Europe from middle east but also from Africa. On the coasts of Africa human smugglers stuff people in boats and send them to Europe. They take money in Euros and take everything the person owns. Even after taking so much money , they stuff 200 people in a boat of maximum capacity of 100 and in Malta only 104 reached alive and 2860 died in the journey.
The problem is that Europe is ‘sweet.’ It doesn’t let people die. If you are the worlds most wanted terrorist and are caught in Europe, you will not be executed. On the top of this, the country which you belong to has to sign a agreement that you will not be harmed or killed.
Europe has accepted many refugees and has given Turkey 3.3 billion dollars to accept refugees. If Turkey keeps accepting refugees its talks with EU for being a part of EU will begin in July, 2016. On the top of that, every time Turkey accepts a refugee, a refugee from Turkey gets accepted in EU. Hence Turkey is happily accepting refugees. But terrorism is spreading in Europe and many EU nations are violating the Schengen agreement as they do not want refugees and this is causing some serious conflicts.
So this was all about the European migrant crises, the middle eastern imbroglio, Syria and terrorism but there is someone more dangerous than the dogs of war. There is someone who can be the reason for the end of the worlds last super power. There is someone out there who can destroy the world as we know it and you guessed him right ladies and gentleman, that man is Donald Trump. In the last 30 years coastal economies have done well but the manufacturing sector has crashed due to the Chinese. The reason he is becoming popular is that for the past thirty years the current account balance of USA has run a perpetual deficit. The only solution US has is to regenerate its industrial economy. Hillary Clinton, who is his only competition is stuck. She was the foreign secretary and one thing the person of that level should do is to make sure that no one can hack into their emails. She used her own mail and kept the server at her home making it extremely easy to hack into her account. This small mistake may cost her this year’s elections. One can only hope that Americans don’t elect Donald Trump to this will happen to the white house.